The Ministry of Energy and Energy Industries recently released the first quarter production data from the energy sector in Trinidad and Tobago.
In the first quarter of 2025, there were short-term increases in the production of crude oil but declines in the production of natural gas and gas-related industries like LNG, methanol, and ammonia production. The data highlights some core issues within the energy sector. Looking at monthly and quarterly data and even single year data often be a bit misleading as it ignores critical historical information.
In the energy sector, production is not constant; it fluctuates due to several factors, including scheduled outages (such as maintenance programs) and unscheduled outages, storage levels, and other factors. It is important to note that this data is also collected across multiple producers with multiple facilities; therefore, month to month, there are increases and decreases in production.
First quarter data for 2025 shows a year-on-year reduction in the production of natural gas (-5.9 percent) during the first quarter of 2025. Crude oil production improved (6.1 percent), while the performance of the petrochemical industry was mixed. Expansions in ammonia (4.7 percent) and urea (12.5 percent) were countered by a notable decline in methanol output (-15.3 percent).
A longer horizon reveals a substantial decline in oil and gas production, which results in lower petrochemical production and ultimately lower energy exports. Oil production has been falling for the last 20 years. Peak oil production in T&T was about 144,000 barrels of oil per day in 2005. Since then, there has been a precipitous decline in production. In May 2005, we produced 155,000 barrels per day. The production in March 2025 is 67% less than May 2005 – a substantial decrease.
In December 2009, natural gas production was 4.5 bcf per day. In March 2025, it was 2.3 bcf/day, almost 50% of what was produced back then.
This longer horizon highlights the urgent need for reform in the energy sector. More needs to be done to encourage investment in the oil and gas sector in T&T. Increased investment leads to more projects, which leads to increased opportunities for contractors to work on greenfield projects, and ultimately, more monetization of oil and gas resources and increased exports of LNG, methanol, and ammonia, which can generate substantial foreign exchange.