The non-energy fiscal balance of Trinidad and Tobago is a cause for great concern to me. Specifically, the non-energy fiscal balance has deteriorated from TT$-3.74 billion in FY 2002 to an expected non-energy fiscal deficit of approximately TT$-25 billion in fiscal year 2022/23. In recent times, in order to run these huge non-energy fiscal deficits the government of TT have been spending out the revenues it receives from the energy sector in order to create some kind of equilibrium in the overall fiscal deficit. This mode of economic governance is certainly unsustainable, and I urge the government of Trinidad and Tobago to work hard in the corridors of fiscal space to increase non-energy fiscal revenues and to reduce overall total expenditures.
Linked to the above is the country’s public sector external debt, which increased from US$1.32 billion in 2007 to US$2.53 billion in 2015 to US$5.2 billion in 2021. The public sector external debt is not a major cause for concern on its own if economic activity is high and rising. However, in the TT economy case, the rise in the public sector debt since 2007 in particular coincides with a period of very little change in real GDP. Specifically, between 2008 and 2021 nominal GDP decreased by 5.6%, although the debt level increased by US$4 billion or 265%. This should concern all citizens as we plan the outlook for our lives and our communities in the medium-term moving forward.
The third area I would raise here is the trend in homicides in TT. The rapid increase in homicides in TT is a real cause for concern, and the overall level of homicides escalated from 93 in 1999 to 550 in 2008, although by 2011 it had dipped to 354. After 2011, however, the homicide level in Trinidad and Tobago continued its merry way upwards, and in 2022 the country recorded 614 murders—the highest for the time period 1966–2022. This, to me, is a sharp blow in the ease of doing business process in Trinidad and Tobago, as it likely will place the intentional homicides per capita value in Trinidad and Tobago among the 5 worst-performing economies in the world for 2022. People are living in fear and the extent of crime has, and will continue to have, a negative impact on productivity and output, in my opinion. Urgent policy-making action is required.
Conclusion The TT economy, using IMF data, is poised to grow in 2023, and this is expected to continue at a slower pace until 2027. The three areas raised above require skillful governance by the government to improve, and I urge policymakers to take a deeper look at the associated trends and to engage in appropriate brainstorming to determine a relevant portfolio of policy suggestions.